Gartner has embarked on a wide-reaching new study of Google and its potential impact on IT, enterprise businesses, and society in general in the coming years. On April 10 at the Gartner Symposium ITxpo 2008 in Las Vegas, Gartner Vice President Richard Hunter revealed some of the first data points from this study.

The two most interesting points were:

1.) The best way to think of Google is as a disruptive technology.

2.) Disruptive technologies create big losers and big winners, and one of the biggest losers in the Google disruption could be traditional IT departments.

Google’s “Data Layer” includes both internally stored and externally accessed sources (Source: SRS, Google Analysis by Gartner)

· ..- Google knows (almost) everything that is connected to the Web

· ..- Google knows 67% of all Web searches

· ..- Google knows 1% of what is sold on the Web

· ..- Google knows the traffic to over 1.5 million Web sites

· ..- Google knows the physical locations of many things

· ..- Google knows the status of your machine if you install Google apps

· ..- Google knows the behavior patterns of Google registered users

· ..- Google is trying to know the physical location of any cell phone user who has installed Google apps or accesses Google services from the phone

Google as a disruptive technology

This new study is being conducted by a team of 15 Gartner researchers, led by Hunter, and the full report will be published in mid-2008. The title of Hunter’s presentation at ITxpo was “What Does Google Know?” The answer to that question was even more sobering than I expected, as the slide below demonstrates.

Hunter added that Google will know a lot more about what’s sold on the Web if Google Checkout takes off, and could soon know a lot about medicine and health patterns if Google Health Records gets adopted.

The Gartner researchers have estimated that Google technology can address 100 exabytes of data (an exabyte is equal to a billion gigabytes). “Their infrastructure has unprecedented scale,” said Hunter, “and what is even more impressive is their ability to connect vast quantities of information… Google is sitting on the biggest pile of information that has ever been collected in the world.”

The reason why Gartner chose to characterize Google as a disruptive technology - rather than just an Internet search engine company - is due to the ambitions that Google has for all of that data and the potential impact that those ambitions could have on the technology industry.

“Where the previous [computing] paradigm has been about my computer, my technology, my stuff … Google is trying to deliver any information, anywhere, to anyone in the world, on any device,” said Hunter.

“Google’s paradigm is a different paradigm. It’s an open source paradigm… We’re about to see a war of paradigms.” Clearly, the leader of the “previous paradigm” and the counter-movement to Google is Microsoft.

However, we also can’t forget that the Google paradigm includes massive privacy concerns. Hunter noted that Google continues to struggle to find the right balance between privacy, security, and its legitimate business interests. The more data Google collects, the bigger and more valuable target it becomes for electronic criminals. That will also make it a bigger target for governments, politicians, and citizen groups.

Hunter stated, “We believe Google’s information security will be a political issue worldwide by the end of the year in 2010.”

Here are few other interesting quotes from Hunter’s presentation, based on the study:

• “Google transcends the limits of the traditional OSI stack.”
• “We don’t know how good Google’s information security is.”
• “Google doesn’t worry about resources. Google’s always got more resources.”
• “Ask not what Google will do to you. Ask what you can do with Google … Ask how much of your business you want to expose to Google.”
• “Above all, move fast, because Google is moving fast.”

Google’s disruption to IT

“Google is disruptive and disruptive technologies produce big winners and big losers,” Hunter said, “One of the big losers is potentially traditional IT departments.”

As part of his presentation, Hunter specifically noted a number of ways in which the Google revolution would disrupt the IT industry in general:

• Traditional database management vendors would be marginalized into handling only high value transactions
• Enterprises will co-opt Google’s approach to data management and Google could host the data
• Proprietary applications such as Microsoft Office would be “deeply threatened”
• Many application builders could start developing on top of the Google platform
• Collaboration services will take a big leap and Google could provide the platform
• Companies will take major parts of the IT infrastructure (e.g. e-mail, storage, and business intelligence) and source it to Google.

However, after the presentation I followed up with Richard to get further clarification on how IT departments could be significant losers in the Google disruption. Here was his response:

“Google has the potential to be the first-choice provider of many services that are now handled by internal IT organizations, starting with non-competitively-differentiating services such as email (which Google already provides to a number of enterprises), and ultimately including high-value-added functions and services such as business intelligence, mobile sales support, and others. Some IT organizations might consider it a boon to pass these functions on to Google so that the IT department can concentrate on very enterprise-specific competitively differentiating applications. IT organizations that measure their worth in terms of how much of the company’s IT needs they supply themselves will be less happy to see Google move in on their turf-and I do mean specifically that in many cases it will be an argument about turf, not enterprise value.

“An important question is: can Google provide the quality (e.g. reliability, availability, security, etc.) that enterprises-a more demanding market compared to individual consumers-require from their suppliers? Consumers are satisfied when the potential provider says ‘Of course!’ Smart enterprises demand certification from someone besides the provider. Providing that certification will be something new for Google. On the other hand, many IT organizations aren’t mature enough to provide proof of their own capabilities in terms of value for money, and so will have a difficult time proving superiority over any external provider, whether or not it’s Google”.

Bottom line for IT leaders

What Gartner is arguing is that Google’s database and data center magic is creating a massive cultural movement and a competitive advantage that is going to sweep away businesses and industries and transform the technology world. In fact, Gartner sees Google becoming so large and powerful from a data storage and access standpoint that it is going to attract scrutiny - and potential regulations - from governments.

While these predictions have legs, several of the trends are larger than Google. As far as IT departments go, there are two related trends that will transform IT over the next decade: utility computing and managed services. The utility computing model will allow IT departments to deploy only the computing capacity that is needed and to track it and charge it to the appropriate business unit, department, or project. That will allow IT to tie the value of technology much more closely to business decisions.

Some businesses won’t want to handle that type of IT internally and so they will outsource it to providers like IBM, Hewlett-Packard, EDS, and Verizon Business. It’s unclear whether Google will want to get into the managed services business, but it might make sense for them partner with vendors like the four mentioned in order to offer services such as e-mail, storage, and business intelligence.

In terms of Google’s technical advantage - part of which is tied to its sheer data center capacity - let’s not forget that the other two big data center builders, Microsoft and Yahoo, could tie the knot soon and became a much more potent threat to Google’s vision. That could especially be the case if Microsoft allows its new technology leader, Ray Ozzie, to drive Microsoft in a much more Google-like direction centered around cloud computing. It’s also not a given that what Google has created in the world’s largest and most effective database isn’t something that Microsoft will eventually catch up to and co-opt.

Nevertheless, Google is obviously on the leading edge many of the trends that are powering the next breaking waves in the technology industry, and the effects of these trends will fundamentally change the way corporate IT departments are organized, operated, and financed over the next decade.

Buying business intelligence (BI) software can be a frustrating, difficult process. Expert Mark Whitehorn offers up the top 11 things BI buyers should -- and shouldn't -- consider.

Buying business intelligence (BI) software can be hard -- with technical evaluations, prioritizing requirements, getting the funding you need and avoiding political landmines, there's a lot to consider. But in my experience, these are the most important considerations for business intelligence software buyers. OK, so eleven is an odd number -- but in addition to the eight things you should consider, I wanted to cover three things you should not consider. In my experience, some people give far too much weight to certain issues that have little or no relevance when choosing a BI system, so it seemed valuable to list these as well.

1. Return on investment (ROI)

ROI is king. It's top of the list because it's the bottom line (if you see what I mean). We don't implement BI systems because they are trendy; we don't do it because the technology is fascinating. We invest the company's money in a BI system because we expect to get more money back, in terms of income or savings, than we invest. Of course, calculating the income/saving is often a major challenge, but it must not be ignored. All the remaining points essentially follow on from ROI.

2. User requirements

This could arguably be at the top of the list, but ROI got in first. There's no point building a BI system unless it delivers exactly what users are requesting/demanding -- so take the time to go through the requirements-gathering process with your business users, however painful it may be. Make sure you can deliver what people want, or just don't start -- a failed project helps no one (and certainly not your career path).

3. Ease of use

Traditionally, BI systems have been difficult to implement, set up, understand, drive – everything about them has been hard. The good news is that the situation is improving, so buy one that is easy to drive. Give serious consideration to ease of use for the end user, but also consider that the easier it is for your technical staff to build and deploy a BI system, the cheaper it will be to implement. The systems that are currently available vary hugely in ease of use -- so make ease of use a priority in all areas.

4. Existing expertise within the organization

Suppose your enterprise has a policy of using just one database engine and has developed a very experienced technical team on-site. If you buy your BI solution from the same vendor, you get double benefits. Almost certainly your staff will find the new tools easier to use, because of the family similarity that runs through products, and secondly, the staff will be happier. If you force them to use a product from a manufacturer they don't respect, they'll hate it on principle and blame it (and/or you) for everything that goes wrong. And they will make sure it does go wrong.

5. Compatible technologies

Notwithstanding the point made above, few vendors currently supply complete end-to-end BI systems. So, depending on your needs, you might not be able to source everything from one supplier. If that is the case, before buying any of the components, ask searching questions to ensure maximum compatibility with your existing infrastructure. All too often, individuals within the enterprise lobby for the purchase of a BI component without taking this into account. (I'm thinking here of, say, the finance officer who insists upon a particular analytical tool.) Compatibility lowers the cost of producing an integrated system (something that finance officer might appreciate, once you explain it).

6. Killer functionality

It may be that one BI software product alone offers a single piece of functionality that outweighs virtually every other consideration except ROI. I have no idea what that might be for your particular enterprise, but you'll know it when you see it (or your IT team will tell you about it, long and loud). It might be support for spatial data types, for example, allowing you to incorporate GPS data for tracking deliveries, or perhaps decomposition trees for innovative data visualizations. But sometimes, that one killer feature makes the whole investment worthwhile, as opposed to trying to get another product to do something that it really wasn't designed to do.

7. Data volume

How much data do you have -- and how much will you have in the future? If you're a large retail chain collecting point-of-sale data, you have lots of data. If you're a telecom company, you have lots of data. If you're NASA … and so on. Certain BI technologies do not scale well. In-memory querying is a case in point: It can be very effective with surprisingly large data volumes, but there are limits to what it can handle. Some software products (particular data mining algorithms, for example) scale badly. They may work well with a million rows, but with 10 million, they may run like a (slow) dog. Try to gauge data volume accurately and match it to software/hardware capabilities. Then make the vendor really prove to you that the software can handle it.

8. Hardware

The hardware available for BI covers a huge range:

• Commodity standalone boxes.
• Commodity boxes bolted together to form Massively Parallel Processing (MPP) arrays.
• Dedicated MPP machines.

Costs vary accordingly. If you under-specify the hardware or try to use the wrong hardware for your new BI software, your system will never perform optimally and the ROI will fail to appear.

The business intelligence software buying points that you should not consider:

9. Cost

Cost isn't important; it's return on investment that counts. It's better to invest $5 million and reap $30 million than to invest $2 million and reap nothing. (Best of all is to invest $2 million and reap $30 million, of course.) With the right calculations and a convincing business case, you should be able to prove this to the money people at your company.

10. Current source systems

Existing operational systems such as the finance, CRM and human resources systems are typically underpinned by a database engine. Just because you're using Engine X for transaction processing does not mean you have to use it for the new BI project, for the simple reason that the Extract, Transform and Load (ETL) tool essentially sits as a buffer between them. Any good tool will be perfectly capable of extracting data from any number of different source systems and transforming it into any flavor you like. This doesn't mean you should ignore the existing expertise in your company – see above – but, in terms of functionality, there is little need to consider the existing engine.

11. The sales pitch

I don't know how to break this to you -- but some salespeople make things up. They exaggerate, omit pertinent information and even lie. This is sad, but inescapable. At best, they often lack a technical grasp of the capabilities of the systems they are offering. It is essential to talk to technically competent people and get them together with your technically competent staff. In my experience, technical people are less likely to stretch the truth. This is not a hard-and-fast rule, simply an observation based on experience. I have, however, heard a technical guy say: "Don't use our Component Y – it's rubbish." I've yet to hear the same words from a salesperson.

Source: TechTarget report

India to remain the fastest growing IT Services country in the region, while Greater China will represent the largest regional opportunity by 2011…

The IT Services market in Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) will grow from US$37.5B in 2007 to US$55.9B in 2011, representing a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% from 2006 to 2011, according to the ‘Asia Pacific IT Services Market and Forecast, 2006-2011’ report by Springboard Research, a leading innovator in the IT Market Research industry. According to the report, the Indian IT Services market with a CAGR of 18.6% will remain the fastest growing in the region, although as a region Greater China will offer the largest market opportunity in dollar terms at the end of the forecast period.

“The Asia Pacific IT Services market is arguably the global leader in terms of growth, supplemented with a mix of mature and emerging markets,” said Phil Hassey, Vice President – Services Research at Springboard Research. “The markets of interest are not just the top four – China, India, Australia and Korea – but the emerging ones like Indonesia and Vietnam, which will register significant growth going forward,” Mr. Hassey added. The report uses Springboard’s Market Attractiveness Index to rank countries and individual IT Services markets on the basis of growth opportunities. According to the Market Attractiveness Index, the top ten countries in the region are:

1. People’s Republic of China

2. India

3. Australia

4. Korea

5. Indonesia

6. Vietnam

7. Malaysia

8. Rest of ASEAN

9. Singapore

10. Philippines

“For India and China, local capabilities, offerings and presence is just the start of a list of essential requirements for success. On the other hand, existing relationships, marquee clients and strong partnerships can provide capabilities for expansion in markets such as Hong Kong and New Zealand with relatively limited opportunities,” Mr. Hassey added. According to the report, Application Hosting with a CAGR of 19.5% between 2007 and 2011, will register the fastest growth during the forecast period, although Enterprise Application Integration at US$ 7.8billion will continue to be the largest component of the market by 2011. While Enterprise IT Outsourcing is the largest market in 2007, the reluctance of PRC firms to use the Enterprise IT Outsourcing model will reduce its relative size and weighting in the market by 2011.

As part of the report’s overall assessment of the APEJ IT Services market, Springboard Research has several key outcomes and predictions for the industry in 2008. The report predicts that challenges in accessing and retaining IT Skills will accelerate the shift to external services providers, as enterprises will struggle to retain in-house key individuals and skill sets. Also, China will not challenge India as the home of offshore service delivery especially for English language requirements – as skill levels, quality, culture and governance are all more suited to India being a hub of global delivery against the PRC.

About this report

Springboard Research ‘Asia Pacific IT Services Market and Forecast 2006-2011’ report offers an extensive and insightful perspective on IT Services market across Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) region. It outlines 15 individual IT Services markets – including Infrastructure Support, Desktop Management, Enterprise Application Integration and IT Outsourcing - and 15 countries with respect to market size, key players and growth dynamics and forecasts demand and growth for each of them. The report also contains predictions for the IT Services industry for 2008.

About Springboard Research

Springboard Research is a next-generation IT market research and advisory firm. Springboard leverages its pioneering research model to deliver greater agility and flexibility in IT market research and helps its clients lead rather than follow market trends. Springboard works with the leading IT companies in the world in the software, services, telecommunications and hardware sectors. Founded in 2004, Springboard has a worldwide presence with offices in the United States, Australia, Singapore and Japan, as well as global research centers in India, Pakistan, and Morocco. Springboard has been acknowledged as an emerging leader and was recently named ‘Rising Star’ in the global IT market research industry by Outsell, the leading research and advisory firm for the information industry. For more information, please visit www.springboardresearch.com

Following is an excellent message from none other than Bill Gates, on the topic of “Age of Software Powered Communications”!

If you've been in the work force for 20 years or more, you can remember a time when the pace of business-and life in general-was quite a bit slower than it is today. Back then we read newspapers and magazines and watched the network news to stay informed. Faxes were just becoming a common way to share written business information. A phone call might elicit a busy signal or no one would answer at all. In those days, no one expected to send documents to coworkers on the other side of the globe instantly, collaborate in real-time with colleagues in distant cities, or share photographs the very day they were taken.

These and similar advances have delivered remarkable results. The ability to access and share information instantly and communicate in ways that transcend the boundaries of time and distance has given rise to an era of unprecedented productivity and innovation that has created new economic opportunities for hundreds of millions of people around the world and paved the way for global economic growth that is unparalleled in human history.

But few people would argue that there is no room for improvement. Although we have once-unimaginable access to people and information, we struggle today to keep track of emails and phone calls across multiple inboxes, devices, and phone numbers; to remember a growing number of passwords; and to synchronize contacts, appointments, and data between desktop PCs and mobile devices. The fact is that the proliferation of communications options has become a burden that often makes it more difficult to reach people than it used to be, rather than easier.

In 2006, I wrote about how unified communications innovations were already beginning to transform the way we communicate at work. Because you are a subscriber to executive emails from Microsoft, I want to provide you with an update on the progress we're making toward achieving our vision for unified communications. I also want to share my thoughts on how rapid advances in hardware, networks, and the software that powers them are laying the foundation for groundbreaking innovations in communications technology. These innovations will revolutionize the way we share information and experiences with the people who are important to us at work and at home, and help make it possible to put the power of digital technology in the hands of billions of people around the globe who have yet to reap the benefits of the knowledge economy.

Moving Beyond Disconnected Communications

A fundamental reason that communicating is still so complex is the fact that the way we communicate is still bound by devices. In the office, we use a work phone with one number. Then we ask people to call us back on a mobile device using another number when we are on the go, or reach us on our home phone with yet another number. And we have different identities and passwords for our work and home email accounts, and for instant messaging.

This will change in the very near future. As more and more of our communications and entertainment is transmitted over the Internet thanks to email, instant messaging, video conferencing, and the emergence of Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP), Internet Protocol Television (IPTV), and other protocols, a new wave of software-driven innovations will eliminate the boundaries between the various modes of communications we use throughout the day. Soon, you'll have a single identity that spans all of the ways people can reach you, and you'll be able to move a conversation seamlessly between voice, text, and video and from one device to another as your location and information sharing needs change. You'll also have more control over how you can be reached and by whom: when you are busy, the software on the device at hand will know whether you can be interrupted, based on what you are doing and who is trying to reach you.

One of the best examples of how communication is changing-and how technology is integrating the way people share experiences across devices-starts in the world of video games. With Xbox Live, the online gaming and entertainment network for Xbox 360, people can play games with friends who are in distant locations. Xbox Live also provides a comprehensive range of communications options including video chat and instant messaging, as well as text, voice, and picture messaging, all seamlessly integrated into the video game experience. With more than 7 million subscribers, Xbox Live is quickly redefining the way people access entertainment of all kinds. And it is enabling them to share experiences with each other in real time without being constrained by the limits of location.

But that's just the start. We recently launched Games for Windows - Live, which links Xbox 360 gamers with the millions of people who play games on their PCs. Now, Windows and Xbox 360 video game players can compete and communicate with each other without being constrained by the limits of devices.

The communications expectations that young people-and anybody else who has adopted the latest digital communications tools-bring to the workplace are already changing how we do business. To them, the desk phone is an anachronism that lacks the flexibility and range of capabilities that their mobile device can provide. A generation that grew up on text messaging is driving the rapid adoption of instant messaging as a standard business communications tool. Accustomed to forming ad hoc virtual communities, they want tools that facilitate the creation of virtual workgroups. Used to collecting and storing information online, they look for team Web sites, Wikis, and other digital ways to create and share information.

All of these expectations are prompting companies to adapt by implementing new communications strategies and technologies. Those that do are already seeing a wide range of benefits including significant cost savings and important productivity gains. At Microsoft, for example, we replaced our old voice mail system with Exchange Server 2007 unified messaging, a move that is saving the company $5 million annually by lowering hardware and maintenance costs. More importantly, Exchange Server 2007 provides a software solution that enables integration of traditional telephone infrastructure and VoIP with corporate messaging, calendaring, and directories. This convergence of telephony and messaging increases employee productivity and decreases the administrative workload for IT professionals.

The Next Wave of Communications Technologies

Today in San Francisco, Microsoft is launching the next wave of enterprise VoIP and unified communications products for business. Among the products we'll launch are Microsoft Office Communications Server 2007 and Microsoft Office Communicator 2007, which bring together a broad range of communications options including voice, instant messaging, and video into a single, consistent experience. Office Communications Server 2007 and Office Communicator make it easier for employees to communicate and collaborate with each other in real-time by letting them see at a glance if the people they want to contact are available. They will also be able to initiate a conversation by email, voice, video, or instant messaging from within Microsoft Office system applications, making communication and collaboration an integral part of day-to-day work processes, rather than an interruption. In addition, when they use the new version of Office Communicator Mobile that is launching today, they! will be able to stay connected using Windows Mobile-powered devices.

We're also announcing the availability of Microsoft RoundTable, an advanced video and VoIP conferencing device that provides a 360-degree view of a meeting room, along with wideband audio and video that tracks the flow of conversation between multiple speakers. With RoundTable and Office Live Meeting or Office Communications Server, meeting participants in different locations will be able to converse and share information as if they were in the same room. RoundTable also enables companies to record meetings for later use.

All of these products are important steps toward achieving our long-term vision for streamlined, integrated communications that will enable people to be more productive, more creative, and to stay in touch more easily without being limited by the device they have at hand or the network they are connected to.

A Foundation for Future Innovation

It would be hard to overstate the magnitude of the changes that are coming. Standardized, software-powered communications technologies will be the catalyst for the convergence of voice, video, text, applications, information, and transactions, making it possible to create a seamless communications continuum that extends across people's work and home lives. This will provide the foundation for new products, services, and capabilities that will change the world in profound and often unexpected ways.

This will happen not only in developed countries where access to digital technology is the norm, but also in emerging economies around the world. Currently, about 1 billion of us have a PC, just a fraction of the world's 6 billion people. As we make technology more accessible and simpler to use-often in the form of affordable mobile devices-we can extend new social and economic opportunities to hundreds of millions of people who have never been able to participate in the global knowledge economy. And as more and more of the world's people are empowered to use their ideas, talents, and hard work to the fullest, the results will be new innovations that make everyone's lives richer, more productive, and more fulfilling.

– Bill Gates